Happy Super Tuesday: The Candidates’ Last WordsOf course, tomorrow morning we’re probably not going to have learned anything definitive about this year’s presidential primary. But that doesn’t mean that each major candidate isn’t treating Super Tuesday as a do-or-die moment. Late last night and early this morning, each took the opportunity to make a final statement that would be circulated through the press throughout today as people gear up to head to the polls. Here’s what they’ve been saying:
• “In my White House, we will know who wears the pantsuits,” Hillary Clinton cracked on Letterman’s show last night. Sure, it was a joke response to a question from the host about whether husband Bill Clinton would be “going through stuff” while she was busy governing the nation, but it’s an important point. Since Bill got a little out-of-control campaigning on her behalf, and since she cried again yesterday, it was important for her to reiterate that she is tough and in charge. [Reuters]
• John McCain, meanwhile, stayed on message, saying that both Democratic candidates are clueless on Iraq. He also indicated that he’d set up “arrangements” to leave U.S. troops there permanently. “We’ve been in Kuwait right next door [to Iraq] for many years,” he pointed out. [NYDN]
ink-stained wretches
Rush & Molloy Still Believe Rupert and Hillary Can Make It, Carr Not As MuchToday in the Daily News, Rush & Molloy attempt to make the case that News Corp. overlord Rupert Murdoch is still on Team Hillary, despite the fact that his New York Post endorsed Barack Obama last week and trashed her in the process. “When it comes to putting money down, Murdoch poured $2,300 – the maximum allowed for a primary race – into her campaign six months ago,” the husband-and-wife duo point out. “He gave Obama nothing.” But the key phrase in that sentence seems to be “six months ago.” Public statements of editorial independence aside, the Post simply doesn’t do anything that Rupert Murdoch doesn’t want it to do. The official policy of loathing Senator Clinton was reiterated even today, with a masthead editorial attacking both her and her husband. David Carr, in today’s Times, seems to see the issue more clearly:
[Clinton] never once appeared before [the Post’s editorial board — a customary act of tribute by local politicians — and her lack of deference was duly noted by the paper’s leadership
in other news
Ann Coulter Is the Britney Spears of PoliticsEven though we do keep Fox News on all day (no, really), we missed the moment yesterday when Ann Coulter endorsed Hillary Clinton for president. Jezebel.com directed our attention to it. “If you’re looking at substance rather than whether there’s an ‘R’ or ‘D’ after his name, manifestly if he’s our candidate, then Hillary’s going to be our girl,” the Coultergeist explained on Hannity & Colmes. “She’s more conservative than he is, she is going to be stronger than he is on terrorism.” Click above to view the clip. The conservative comedienne went on to say that she would campaign for Hillary if McCain was the Republican nominee. Coulter based her arguments on the fact that McCain is bad for the GOP, and than Hillary “lies less” and “is smarter” than he is. “She isn’t going to be a weak woman” and pull the troops out of Iraq, either, Coulter argued. “I’m a Hillary Girl now!”
We’re just going to say it: Ann Coulter is to political commentary what Britney Spears is to celebrity culture. Remember when Jamie Lynn Spears got pregnant and was the focus of all attention for a couple of days? Britney got upset that she was out of the news for a few days, filled herself up with booze and pills, stole her children for a night, and had to be rushed to the hospital.
intel
2008 Electopedia: Now With Full Obama FlavorAs the election has morphed, so has New York’s comprehensive Electopedia. It’s now Obamafied! It’s got everything you needed to know about the Illinois senator but never thought to ask, like: Who is his worst enemy? How often does he go to church? And just how rich is he? Answers to those questions are already in there for our hometown senator, Hillary Clinton. But now, as battle gets heated (okay, stays heated? Gets scorching?), don’t forget to use the handy guide to figure out how they stack up on the issues they don’t talk about on TV.
2008 Electopedia
it just happened
Breaking: John Edwards to Drop Out of RaceToday’s a big day for third-place candidates, it seems. After news spread last night that Giuliani will drop out of the Republican primary race as early as today, news hit this morning that John Edwards is planning the same thing. According to the Associated Press, the former Democratic senator will make the announcement today at 1 p.m. in New Orleans. No endorsement is yet planned.
Edwards to Quit Presidential Race [AP]
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Giuliani: A Final Break From the Bravado?Rudy Giuliani has finally cracked and recognized that today’s Florida results could possibly signal the end of his campaign. Asked whether he would drop out after a loss today, the former mayor told reporters yesterday: “When it’s Wednesday morning, we’ll make the decision.” Since much of the press has already decided that Giuliani is dead in the water, speculation has turned to how he will drop out, and when. He’ll definitely participate in tomorrow’s Republican debate, but sources for the New York Sun argue that he won’t risk a major loss in New York State next Tuesday. If it’s proven that he’s not even popular in his home state anymore, where he made his name, it would be a blow to his reputation, would be bad for his business, Giuliani Partners, and would undermine his candidacy for a Cabinet position in the future. It’s all about the Giuliani brand name, which has made him millions as a speaker and as a consultant. As Maureen Dowd pointed out on Sunday, he’s not even likely to put up a tough fight on the way out, in order to preserve the purchase power of his name. He’ll likely last a few extra days, like Fred Thompson did after losing big in South Carolina, and then bow out quietly without drama. To think, it was less than eight years ago that he dropped out of the New York Senate race after battling a tidal wave of negative press after his high-profile split from Donna Hanover. And critics said Giuliani couldn’t change.
RUDY HINTS FLA. HIS LAST STAND [NYP]
intel
Jessica Yellin: Getting Yelled at by Bill Clinton So You Don’t Have To
It’s hard to be a TV political correspondent. Unlike print and radio reporters, you can’t just show up to work unshowered, wearing yesterday’s pants that are beginning to smell like a muffin. You have to look good, and you have to have energy. That’s while keeping track of who’s up, who’s down, who’s black, who’s white, who used to be black, etc. Bless those people. In this week’s New York, we picked out five of the rising stars in the 2008 presidential-election press corps that you should keep your eye on because they’re fun, smart, trustworthy, and most important, cute. Just for the Web, we spoke with each about covering the campaigns this year. After the jump, check out our eight questions for CNN’s Jessica Yellin. She’s the hard-tested correspondent who got bitched out by Bill Clinton last week after asking a perfectly reasonable question. She’s an old hat at political interviews, having sat down with Laura Bush, George H.W. Bush, Barack Obama, and many others. (We also think she’s funny because, as many correspondents were searching for words to describe how blue-staters feel about Karl Rove, she just came out and said it: “For many Democrats, Karl Rove is the ‘Dark Prince’ of the Bush administration.” He’s sexy evil!)
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‘Times’ Endorsements Include a Pinch in the Bum for GiulianiOkay, so there was a debate last night. All of the Republican presidential candidates got together to chat about whom people should choose in the voting booth (we’ll have details for you later). But, see, you might not hear much about it because it didn’t really matter. Why not? Because the Times bogarted all of the primary discussion this morning with their unsurprisingly self-righteous endorsements. For the Democrats, they chose Hillary Clinton because they “are hugely impressed by the depth of her knowledge, by the force of her intellect and by the breadth of, yes, her experience.” (Don’t worry, though, they totally heart Obama, too.) And for the Republicans, they begrudgingly chose John McCain. Except it wasn’t so much an editorial supporting McCain as it was one attempting, once and for all, to obliterate Rudy Giuliani.
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Diva Debaters: Which One Is Bigger?Hey, everybody! There’s an update in New York’s patented 2008 Electopedia. In our exhaustive look at New York’s presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, we’ve already compared the two in categories ranging from “First Love” to “Relationship With Offspring.” Today’s matchup is “Best Debate Smackdown.” Think you know when Giuliani’s elbow (or Hillary’s voice) was at its sharpest? Click through to read all about it.
Best Debate Smackdown [Electopedia]
The 2008 Electopedia [Main Page]
intel
Michelle Obama Doesn’t Need to Fight Bill Clinton — That’s What You Are ForWe just got an e-mail from Michelle Obama that, frankly, has left us a little disappointed. It turns out that Michelle, whom we have always perceived to be the balls portion of the whole Obama package, is turning her sights on Bill Clinton. In an e-mail to supporters with the subject “What we didn’t expect,” Mama Obama has this to say:
We knew getting into this race that Barack would be competing with Senator Clinton and President Clinton at the same time. We expected that Bill Clinton would tout his record from the nineties and talk about Hillary’s role in his past success. That’s a fair approach and a challenge we are prepared to face. What we didn’t expect, at least not from our fellow Democrats, are the win-at-all-costs tactics we’ve seen recently. We didn’t expect misleading accusations that willfully distort Barack’s record.
We knew Michelle had been called into South Carolina to counter the Bubba effect. On the ground, she’s been talking generally about “opponents” using “attacks and fear.” But we were kind of hoping that she’d take him face-on more openly. It’s partially because one of us is gay, and therefore enjoys any scenario in which a powerful black woman lays the smack down.
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At Last: Introducing John Edwards, the Minority CandidateRemember when we were surprised that, after “The Cry,” Hillary Clinton suddenly was turned into a minority candidate? She is a woman, after all, but until recently both she and Obama had done a good job of sidelining their gender and race. Well, now we’re really surprised. John Edwards is now claiming to be a accepting the title of “minority candidate,” because he is the only white male running in the Democratic primaries. The above clip (click to view) is from an episode of The Tyra Banks Show to be aired on Friday. In it, you’ll see the following exchange:
Tyra: What does that feel like to be a minority and to be a white male?
Edwards: It feels like you have to fight hard for everything you get.
Tyra: [Offering up a high five] Give it to me because I’m a black woman.
Next thing you know, the Republican candidates will be claiming to be minorities. And then we’ll know the apocalypse is nigh.
Edwards Talks to Tyra Banks [Time]
Related: Hillary Clinton: Minority Candidate
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Hillary’s Communications Guru Takes the Long Way RoundChances are, many of you know who Clinton’s communications director, Howard Wolfson, is. Probably fewer of you know that he is afraid of flying. But among campaign reporters and workers, it’s no secret. He hasn’t flown on a plane since 1999, when he flew on Air Force One during Hillary’s New York senate campaign. But he’s never really talked about it until now, when he admitted all his neuroses to Observer reporter Jason Horowitz.
“It’s all mishegoss — fear is not rational,” said Mr. Wolfson when asked to explain the root of his now decade-long aversion to air travel. “I could point to a couple of things but at the end of the day it just ascribes a level of rationality to it that doesn’t exist.”
You’ll recall that this primary schedule is one that requires moving from, say, Iowa to New Hampshire or South Carolina to Nevada with great speed. While the rest of the campaign is in the air, Wolfson is driving alone, often up to seventeen hours at a time, in his BMW. One could argue that this is a severe detriment to his usefulness on the trail. One could also argue that since everybody has a phone and a BlackBerry these days, it doesn’t really matter. Regardless, we really like that Horowitz is letting us into the secret world of the Hillary press camp. First Hillary’s hipster, and now this. He’s all up in their bidness! No wonder he’s around when they get important phone calls.
The Spokesman Who Couldn’t Fly [NYO]
Related: Hillary’s Press Guru Is More Hipster Than Thou
it just happened
Fred Thompson Drops Out of Presidential RaceFred Thompson has dropped out of the presidential race. “Today, I have withdrawn my candidacy for president of the United States,” the former Tennessee senator said in a statement that was just released. “I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort.” There was no announcement of whether he would be endorsing one of his former Republican rivals for the nomination. Thompson had said that he needed to win this weekend’s South Carolina primary, in which he placed third, in order to continue the campaign. To which we say, good call. The odds of winning are much better on Law & Order, anyway.
Fred Thompson Quits Presidential Race [AP]
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Everybody Loves a Good Bad DebateIf you decided to watch the Democratic presidential debate last night instead of American Gladiators, you made the right choice. The brutal (and hilarious) squabbling between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama was just as entertaining, if not more, as watching an overmuscled guy in spandex use a pillow stick to beat the living hell out of a civilian. “Senator Obama, it’s hard to have a straight-up debate with you because you never take responsibility for any vote,” snapped Hillary at one point, to boos. Obama, referencing the attacks on him by former president Bill Clinton, shot back, “I can’t tell who I’m running against at times!” Snap! But unlike on Gladiators, there was no clear winner in the debates. Below, a roundup of speculation and analysis on who came out on top and who couldn’t get past the “The Eliminator”:
• Everyone lost a little bit by reducing themselves to familylike squabbling. “Any good psychologist would recognize the three classic defense mechanisms on display,” explains Richard Wolffe. “Denial, repression and suppression.” [Newsweek]
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Bloomberg Meets With Perot’s Ballot Expert, Also Lance ArmstrongNow, we don’t know Elizabeth Benjamin from the Daily News’ Daily Politics blog, and we have never met Azi Paybarah from the Observer’s Politicker. But sometimes we want to give them a standing ovation. On days when Mayor Bloomberg’s maddening presidential flirtations make us want to pull our hair out, rip at our fingernails, and start talking really loudly on the subway to nobody in particular, they maintain a cool composure. Every hint, tease, and come-on that the mayor makes toward entering the 2008 presidential race they report with grace and ease. Like, today, for example, when Bloomberg sat down with Texas ballot-access expert Clay Mulford, the guy who put Ross Perot’s name in voting booths in 1992 and 1996. This is yet another strong signal that the mayor is setting up plans to make an independent run, but he once again made an exasperated denial of any such plans to reporters today. “Read into that what you will,” Benjamin reported coolly. “Another sign that he’s running for President or another well-placed tip that keeps the buzz alive.” Paybarah doesn’t even offer up an analysis, other than explaining the ballot logistics. We don’t know how you do it, people. We literally don’t have eyebrows anymore.
Bloomberg Meets With Ballot Expert [AP]
in other news
Huckabee Salutes the Stars and BarsMike Huckabee has to do something extreme to differentiate himself from his opponent John McCain in South Carolina at this point. With the primary tomorrow, the two remain neck and neck (well, McCain doesn’t really have a neck, so maybe it’s neck and scar?). So Huckabee has taken a strategy that may work well in South Carolina but will have people scratching their heads in many other places in the country. Ever the populist, he’s come out in favor of one of America’s oldest underdogs: the right to fly the Confederate flag. Yesterday, in Myrtle Beach, he told a crowd of South Carolinians: “You don’t like people from outside the state coming in and telling you what to do with your flag.” Until 2000 when it was removed after political pressure, the pennant was still flying at the South Carolina State House. “If somebody came to Arkansas and told us what to do with our flag, we’d tell them what to do with the pole,” Huckabee finished. Ha-ha! He’d ram it up their asses! Oh, wait. That image in and of itself is a little offensive, even without the whole racial problem the flag represents. Click above to hear a pro-Huckabee ad that is running in the state right now, sponsored by the “Americans for the Preservation of American Culture,” a group that claims it is unaffiliated with the candidate. McCain, who in the past has called the flag a racist symbol, is painted as an anti-hero. As we discussed this morning, this all may show how well Huckabee knows his base, but it also kind of shows how poorly he knows everybody else.
Huckabee Embraces Confederate Flag To Woo White Evangelicals [HuffPo]
Earlier: Huckabee Is Inside Our Heads, Vice Versa
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Huckabee Is Inside Our Heads, Vice VersaEverybody seems to have Mike Huckabee on the brain today. As he pulls up nearly even with John McCain in South Carolina leading up to the primary there tomorrow, political writers are trying to understand what voters are thinking about the Baptist bass player. Do the Evangelicals matter? Don’t they? Will they even vote for him? It’s a Huckanundrum!
• David Brooks reminds us that it can be looked at pretty simply: “It is no accident that the major candidates in the Republican field are a pastor, a businessman and a war hero. These are the three most evocative Republican leadership models.” [NYT]
• But Rich Lowry says that this appeal as a pastor has begun cooling with non-Evangelicals. And now that it’s becoming clearer that he lacks the planning to impress voters with his policy ideas. [NYP]
party lines
Carl Bernstein: We’ve Got the Hillary of ‘92 BackPlummy with his trademark bravado and bonhomie, Carl Bernstein took the stage at the packed 92nd Street Y last night to talk about A Woman in Charge, his bestselling, closely observed Hillary bio. “The theme of the fear of humiliation runs through her life,” he told the crowd, explaining that that’s why she resisted investigations into Whitewater, for example, and never told her closest law colleagues in Arkansas that she failed the D.C. bar exam. What’s more, he said, her current campaign has found both her and Bill slipping back into their old, unpalatable take-no-prisoners mode, rather than that more supple, negotiation-friendly Hillary that bloomed like a quiet flower in the Senate. “We’re seeing a real devolution back to the Hillary Clinton of the ‘92 campaign,” he said. “She’s shown a lot of her worst.”
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Rudy Giuliani Braves the Delegate Dance of DoomToday the Times plays the delegate game with Rudy Giuliani. “If he carries Florida, he carries New York,” historian and sometime Giuliani adviser Fred Siegel told the paper. That logic has a victory in Florida giving the former mayor the additional 183 delegates from New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut (though it blatantly disregards how this race has proven that one primary can have little or no influence on the next). That would give Giuliani 15 percent of the delegates he needs (not counting Florida’s 57). It’s a boost that would not be insignificant, but the paper also reports that even Giuliani’s staunch supporters in the Northeast are worried, and that McCain is edging ahead in New Jersey. (And, hilariously, the Associated Press has taken to calling his Florida campaign a “Hail Mary.”) But as more and more news outlets are revving up their Giuliani Campaign Deathwatches, it’s almost as if they, too, forget the lessons we’ve learned. Sure, all looks bad for him right now, but it did for McCain in late 2007, and it did for Hillary just before New Hampshire. No one can predict what’s going to happen, not even those goddamned delegates.
Even at Home, Backers Worry About Giuliani [NYT]
Earlier: In 2008 Primary Race, Delegates Take the Lead, Heilemann on Michigan’s Republican Goat Rodeo: Is Rudy a Mad Genius After All?
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Is Hillary Clinton Indeed Tracy Flick?This week, Slate V has addressed an issue that we (and others) have been thinking about for a long time. That is: Is Hillary Clinton secretly the exact same person as Tracy Flick, the beloved Reese Witherspoon character from the movie Election? She’s blonde, she’s driven, she’s oddly sexless (even as she is sexualized by others), she’s competitive and ruthless, and sometimes you wonder whether she has the emotions of normal people. (You know, like how you wonder whether Tom Cruise would have to look around at a funeral to see what everybody else was doing before he knew not to cackle.) The video (click above to view) isn’t the best thing you’ve ever seen, but you KNOW the musical howling that goes on the first time you see Barack Obama supporters is exactly the noise that Hillary hears in her head. It even sounds like her voice!
Hillary Clinton’s Inner Tracy Flick [Slate V]
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In 2008 Primary Race, Delegates Take the LeadAs we move out of last night’s Republican primary in New Hampshire, and the fatigued Democratic debate, one thing has become clear: We don’t know what’s going to happen. Pollsters and pundits alike don’t understand the dynamics of the race and can’t seem to predict how the leads in either race will shift as we continue from state to state. But something interesting (or dreadful, depending on how you view it) is emerging. This year’s contest, it seems, is soon going to become all about the delegates.
Sure, every national election is “all about the delegates,” technically. But as we enter the South Carolina primary, we’re hearing more and more about the importance of delegate-oriented campaign planning and how because of the complicated system that many voters don’t understand, strategies might dramatically shift in the coming weeks.
• “I’m not sure it’s about the bump [after Michigan],” Romney told reporters this morning. “It’s about putting together delegates.” Romney, despite having Michigan as his first win, is leading with 42 delegates amassed so far. [Detroit Free Press, AP]
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Great Lakes, Great Times: The Michigan PrimaryHey voters, don’t let the Democrats steal Michigan’s thunder tonight. There may be a much-anticipated battle between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama (how do you effectively spar when walking on eggshells?), and John Edwards (and Kucinich maybe) tonight in Nevada, but don’t forget the Republicans are doing something, too. They’re actually, you know, voting, which is kind of a relief. And the results might have a big effect on the rest of the race. If Romney loses, many suspect it’ll be the effective end of his campaign: a third big loss in a state where he spent three times as much on TV as any other candidate ($2 million) and where he actually was born. Unlike McCain, he doesn’t have the luxury of spending part of today spinning a possible loss and looking forward to South Carolina. According to the most recent polls, McCain and Romney are head-to-head, pulling in around 30 percent of voters each. But turnout across the state so far has been low, and since the state allows independents to vote in party primaries, those numbers are increasingly unreliable. All of which basically means nobody knows who is going to pull it off. Pollsters and pundits are wary of making any predictions today. So if you must watch the Democratic debate, make sure you keep checking the Republican results. Because it’s going to be fun as hell to watch all those TV talking heads say “I told you so” later on tonight, when in fact they told you nothing at all.
in other news
Katie Couric Thinks Cindy McCain Looks Like ‘a Husky’Harry Shearer has another funny outtake clip of Katie Couric, this time broadcasting from New Hampshire during the primary. Greatest lines include “Giuliani’s dead. I mean, you know what I mean,” “Oh shit oh shit oh shit,” “[Cindy McCain] looks like a husky!” and “I don’t know much about Huckabee.” Click above to view — it’s sort of boring and riveting at the same time. But it raises the question: How does Harry Shearer keep posting these things without backlash from CBS News and Couric herself? Unless Katie secretly likes this stuff slipping out
Katie Couric 1 [My Damn Channel]
Earlier: Katie Couric: ‘This Tart is Ready to Go’
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Reading Rudy’s Future: It’s a Dry HeatNow that yesterday’s poll numbers on Giuliani in Florida have sunk in, campaign staffers and political analysts (those that can stand to take a break from dissecting Hillary and Obama’s race kerfuffle) are trying to figure out whether this means the end for the former New York mayor. Yesterday, the Times reported that one of their polls showed McCain edging ahead of Giuliani by a small amount in the southern swing state, where Giuliani has been concentrating all of his campaign efforts. Huckabee and Romney were a mere percentage point behind, putting all four within the same margin of error for the poll. Now, with the arrival of the Michigan primary (Giuliani’s first real chance at a strong finish, some are taking a hard look at his future prospects:
• Today Giuliani’s chief strategist Brent Seaborn saw a bright side in not being part of the brutal Huckabee-Romney-McCain battle in early primary states: “I think we’ve been in the fortunate position that a lot of attacks haven’t been directed our way.” Giuliani may remain remarkably unscathed late into the race, which will be a surprise boon for a candidate with many potential negatives.
• But Matthew Continetti in the Weekly Standard points out that Hillary’s recent stumbles against Barack Obama may have taken the wind out of Giuliani’s campaign, which early on was partially based on his unique ability to take down the Clinton machine in a general election.
• And Joel Achenbach adds that when Super Tuesday comes around, previous voting numbers are going to become irrelevant in the face of delegate accumulation. Giuliani has always been aiming for delegates, not total state wins, and this strategy may serve him well on February 5.
• Finally, Talking Points Memo reads the Romney-McCain-Giuliani tea leaves and declares that the question isn’t whether it’s judgment day for Giuliani, but whether it’s high noon for Mitt.
in other news
Hillary Clinton’s Secret Is in the Stars
Last night, Vanity Fair astrologer Michael Lutin did something that nobody has yet been able to do sufficiently: He explained Hillary Clinton. The secret to Clinton’s murky, buttoned-up, hypercompetitive personality is centered upon one simple thing: She’s a Scorpio. Wait, wait, wait, take this seriously for a minute. We’re not usually into astrology or anything like that. Normally when we talk to someone about their zodiac sign, the person always ends up talking about the spiritual lives of animals or reincarnation or something cringe-worthy like that. But this guy Lutin is talking some sense! He explains:
• “The whole Congress-health care fiasco was a disaster, partly because Scorpios do lack subtlety when they have a goal.”
• “Scorpios always have not only Plan B, but they usually have it figured out all the way up to Plan Z.” [Ed: From now on, your Plan C is “Cry.”]
• “In the end, foreign or domestic policies notwithstanding, Scorpio always turns out to be an issue of gender. ”
• “When situations are dire, enterprises failing, businesses stalling, empires falling and extinction is right around the corner, Scorpios get turned on. Only they can walk right down into the Valley of the Lepers with bagels and cream cheese and think nothing of it.”
• “It should come as no surprise that Hillary Clinton came out swinging after her defeat in Iowa. After all, it was in the stars: she is a Scorpio and Scorpio rules the instinct for survival. Scorpio also rules cockroaches. Did you ever try to spray or drown them? They can hold their breath and play dead until you walk out of the kitchen and turn out the light.”
• “Hillary has a higher agenda to help her survive the worst bites, kicks, slaps and cuts. She knows she would rise up again in a brand new incarnation to make her betrayer serve her needs.”
Oh. Well, never mind. This conversation about astrology ended like all the other ones, it seems.
Hillary’s Horoscope: Her Comeback Was in the Stars [HuffPo]
intel
Hey, MSNBC, Stop Trying to Make ‘Tsunami Tuesday’ Happen
Has anyone else noticed that since the December 2004 tsunami that killed over 200,000 people, most networks have shied away from using the sometimes-mentioned Super Tuesday nickname “Tsunami Tuesday”? It has been used to describe February 5, the day when a crazy amount of states will be holding their primaries. But since the word “tsunami” is sort of synonymous with, um, mass death, it’s hasn’t really built up much steam. Except for on MSNBC. They’ve really been trying to make “Tsunami Tuesday” into a buzz term. It’s on all their ads, in their Web editorial language, and used on the air. We have to say, we’re not quite ready to bring the term back into common parlance. What’s next, an election countdown to “Nagasaki November”?
Will Tsunami Tuesday be an afterthought? [MSNBC]
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Media to Bloomberg: Don’t Phunk With Our HeartsThe news that Michael “I swear am not running for president” Bloomberg has spent the last several months doing extensive polling to assess his presidential chances has spawned yet another round of speculative headlines about his possible candidacy, and the Times is getting kind of sick of it. “Even before actually entering the contest, Mr. Bloomberg may have already risked losing something: people’s patience.” Newsday, too, is unsure that the prolonged game of cat and mouse is doing him any favors. “He risks negative coverage, and it’s already begun,” they note. Well, yeah.
it just happened
John Kerry Endorses Barack ObamaRight about now, John Kerry is stepping up on a stage in Charleston, South Carolina, to announce that he’s endorsing Barack Obama for president. This sort of makes sense, as Kerry was the guy who picked Obama to deliver the keynote speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, which rocketed the young politician onto the national stage. Except, wait, it doesn’t make sense, because Kerry was also the person who chose John Edwards as a running mate that same year. Man, Edwards just can’t win these days, huh? Oh, wait…
2004 Dem Nominee Kerry Endorsing Obama [AP]
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Obama Is Tired But Not Yet CrankyHey everyone! Remember Barack Obama? We know we’ve been pretty obsessed with Hillary these days, but don’t forget, even before she decided to cry, he decided to be black. So we would be remiss if we didn’t look into what the hell that guy has planned after New Hampshire. After all, now that the Democratic contest (or, for now, its press coverage) has narrowed to just the two front-runners, Obama is going to receive a heck of a lot more scrutiny (as was so eloquently explained by New York’s John Heilemann). As many seem to see it, Obama has two choices: He can, as Time puts it, “take up a sharper knife in his fight with Hillary,” and begin hacking at her the way she started slicing at him in New Hampshire. “I come from Chicago politics,” the Illinois senator said yesterday. “We’re accustomed to rough-and-tumble. We have to make sure that we take it to them just like they take it to us.” Or he can stay nice like always.
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Hillary Clinton: Minority CandidateWell. We’ll be honest. We thought Ellen DeGeneres set the all-time record for the amount of discussion that could be had about an older blonde woman crying in public. But Hillary really blows her out of the water. (And she didn’t even really cry — as Jezebel put it, “It’s not crying if there’s no snot.”) Regardless of whether “The Cry,” as we’re calling it henceforth, actually put Hillary over the top in New Hampshire, the media is going bananas about it. And while there’s a lot of talk about how almost crying “humanized her,” what it really did, in the eyes and words of the media, was make her a minority candidate again. She is a woman. You almost forgot, didn’t you? It’s not that crying is a particularly womanly thing to do; it’s that the coverage of the tears suddenly has everyone from Gloria Steinem to Arianna Huffington to Chris Matthews howling about her femininity. Clearly, Hillary being a woman was a much bigger deal to us than we thought it was.
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New York City Would Prefer Bloomberg in Albany Over WashingtonWow, the dramatic turn in the contest between giant personalities Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama has done the unthinkable: It’s knocked Bloomberg out of the presidential primary coverage! What a relief! Except now he’s snuck into political reports in another way: in the results of a Quinnipiac poll. Turns out a whopping 70 percent of New York City residents think that Bloomberg would be a good governor. That’s compared to the 52 percent who think he’d make a good president. Not that he can’t run for both; current governor Eliot Spitzer’s term runs out in 2010. But we already know this idea is on his mind. Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, makes a very good point (with two potential meanings) in her analysis: “Historical note: A couple of 20th Century New York governors have become President. No New York City mayor has.”
New Yorkers Like Bloomberg for Governor [NYO]
Related: Noncandidate Bloomberg Just Happens to Have Better Ideas Than the Real Candidates
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The Press Feels Bad It Made Hillary SadLast night’s Hillary victory raised a lot of questions, to be sure. Specifically, it put into the limelight the role of women in this primary season — and the way that woman candidates are covered. Check out a sampling of headlines from this morning:
Can Hillary Cry Her Way Back to the White House? [NYT]
Clinton Camp Goes From Glum to Giddy [LA Times]
A Clinton Wake Becomes a Revival [USA Today]
WHO’S CRYIN’ NOW [NYDN]
Almost everyone emphasizes that she was sad, and now she’s happy. As though that’s what matters the most, how Hillary feels. Now, it may be her fault for near-crying in the first place, but all of a sudden, the candidate who was the most robotic is the emotional heart of this race. Look at her face! She’s happy! (And perhaps a little demented!) We did something good to cheer mom up! We’re not sure that the crying was responsible for Clinton’s among women in New Hampshire (how quickly we forget that Obama had America’s real woman-in-chief, Oprah, stumping for him in Iowa). But we do know this: If Hillary wants to keep women caring about how she feels, she’s going to have to rethink those outfits. Because that whole Talbots–Meets–Madame Chiang Kai-shek thing is enough to turn ‘em away like OxyClean on a tough stain.
Earlier: This Thing Is Still Wide Open
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As Voting Winds Down, Who Is Still Wound Up?While the press has been running ragged up in New Hampshire, we set journalist Peter Keating to work watching the candidates to see which ones were putting in the most effort. Contrary to what the 24-hour news cycle would have you believe, some of them sleep. Some of them skip events. And some of them, well, aren’t really trying. Later tonight, we’ll bring you the results of all the hard work. For now, Keating’s report from the campaign trail begins in a predictable place:
“Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s Visit Here Today At 4:30pm Has Been Cancelled,” reads a sign hanging in the window at John’s Barber Shop, an old-school establishment nestled among the charming shops on Daniel Street in Portsmouth, N.H. Of course it’s been canceled. Rudy had better things to do this afternoon than to keep grubbing for votes in a state where he’s been vying to keep pace with Duncan Hunter in the polls.
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Bill Clinton Accuses Obama Camp of Preparing Dirty Financial AttacksSo we have been watching Bill Clinton’s blistering anti-Obama rant from a New Hampshire rally today, and it’s really juicy. You know, the one in which he calls Obama’s campaign a “fairy tale”? (And not in the good way?) Well, if you listen (and we transcribed below), Bill accuses the Obama camp of secretly drudging up old Clinton financial concerns and preparing a memo about them that was never released. Plus, you know, he goes bonkers. Which is fun enough on its own.
“That is the central argument for his campaign: ‘It doesn’t matter that I started running for president less than one year after I got to the Senate from the Illinois State Senate. I am a great speaker and a charismatic figure, and I am the only one that had the judgment to oppose this war from the beginning, always, always, always.’”
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New Hampshire: The Wild Rumpus Has BegunPress reports claim that lines at New Hampshire polling stations are already stretching down the street. Anyone still in line at 8 p.m., when the polls close, will be allowed to vote, state officials said. As you can see from last night, above, things were off to an auspicious start.
Update: Bloody hell. Right now the Drudge Report’s banner headline (with a siren!) is this: “EPIC TURNOUT FOR DEMS – We Are Out of Ballots!”
it just happened
Breaking: Hillary Cries!
While Barack Obama is waltzing around New Hampshire cracking dirty jokes, Hillary Clinton is up there crying. It happened during a chat with a gathering of women at a coffee shop in Portsmouth. Sixty-four-year old Maryann Pernold told Hillary that as a woman, she knew “it’s hard to get up every day and get ready and get out of the house in the morning.” She asked Clinton how she did it every day on the campaign trail. The Wall Street Journal was there and caught the moment:
“It’s not easy, it’s not easy,” Clinton said shaking her head. Her eyes began to get watery as she finished answering the question, “I couldn’t do it if I didn’t passionately believe it was the right thing to do. This is very personal for me. I have so many ideas for this country and I just don’t want to see us fall backwards. It’s about our country, it’s about our kids’ future,” she said softly crying, her voice breaking. The group of 15 women sitting around a table at the Cafe Espresso nodded understandingly. Clinton continued, her voice still cracking: “We do it each one of us because we care about our country, but some of us are right and some of us are wrong, some of us are ready and some of us are not, some of us know what we’ll do on day one and some of us don’t,” she said.
The Journal wonders whether this may be Clinton’s Edmund Muskie moment (Muskie appeared to tear up in 1972 after a New Hampshire newspaper attacked his wife, and the image managed to derail the popular Maine senator’s candidacy). But we have to wonder, like Bob Shrum before us, if this isn’t exactly what her campaign needs. Finally, proof that Hillary is human. Even though the campaign is ravaging her physically and emotionally, she’s still fighting because she cares. What better testament to someone’s character as a candidate?
Either that or she faked it, which would also be totally stellar.
Emotional Moment for Clinton in N.H.[WSJ]
Video: Teary Hillary [ABC News]
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Bob Shrum Shows Bill Kristol How It’s DoneHey guys! Did you see Bill Kristol’s first column appeared in the Times today? Boy, was it a doozy. Kristol took his classic conservative bluster and put it front and center on his first day:
Thank you, Senator Obama. You’ve defeated Senator Clinton in Iowa. It looks as if you’re about to beat her in New Hampshire. There will be no Clinton Restoration. A nation turns its grateful eyes to you. But gratitude for sparing us a third Clinton term only goes so far. Who, inquiring minds want to know, is going to spare us a first Obama term? After all, for all his ability and charm, Barack Obama is still a liberal Democrat.
Blah, blah, blah, Hillary is a national nightmare, liberal Democrats will doom us all. Pretty standard boilerplate, most likely selected to startle the tepidly Democratic readership of the Times opinion pages. But Kristol doesn’t teach us anything we don’t know (“some Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of a Huckabee nomination”), and he doesn’t question anything we take for granted (“Voters seem to be enjoying making up their own minds this year. And Huckabee is a talented politician.”). So it’s not really that startling at all. But over in the Daily News, we get the same sort of indictment of Hillary Clinton and her campaign machine — only more surprising, this time it’s from former Clintonite and Democratic mastermind Bob Shrum.
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An Imaginary Obama-Huckabee MatchupOf course, there’s no way of knowing what will happen to Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee next week or during any of the following primaries. Hillary, we’re guessing, has a lot of tricks left up her sleeve, and McCain and Romney are sure to make a surge in less evangelical states like New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada. But, if the thus-far-imaginary Huckabee-Obama contest were to one day take place, the Huffington Post has poll data from before the caucus. SurveyUSA polled voters in a handful of swing (and non-swing) states about a potential general election between the Illinois senator and the former Arkansas governor. Here are some of the more interesting results:
Obama gets:
Wisconsin by 16%
Iowa by 13%
Oregon by 11%
Virginia by 9%
Minnesota by 5%
Ohio by 1%
Huckabee gets:
Kentucky by 13%
Missouri by 2%
New Mexico by 1%
Now, that’s not all of the potential swing states, and in general it doesn’t really mean anything. But you were kinda wondering, weren’t you?
Huckabee vs. Obama: Who Wins? [HuffPo]
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Hey, Did You Know Bloomberg Had a Say in Iowa, Too?After barely allowing the spotlight to wander off of him yesterday during the Iowa caucus, Bloomberg is at it again, inserting himself into the presidential discussion. During his weekly call-in talk show with John Gambling on WABC-AM, Bloomberg opined on the results from the Midwest and on why he thinks the candidates aren’t really telling America what it needs to hear. Some highlights:
• “I think you can’t read an awful lot into any one state’s election.”
• “I have no idea who’s going to win. I’m not in the business of handicapping.”
• “[The candidates] are unwilling to face the big issues, and take the risks, and give it straight to the public. And that’s not good for democracy, and it’s certainly not good for America.”
• “There’s [no issue or solution] without cost that is facing us. And it’s just … You know, the people running for office always say, ‘I don’t want to bring that up now. If I do, I won’t get elected. But if I don’t mention it and get elected, then I can do the difficult stuff.’”
• “I would just like to get [the candidates] to address the important issues with more specificity of what they’d actually do to solve the problem of who’s going to pay for health care, and what are we going to do overseas, and how are we going to keep our economy — which seems to be slowing down — how we’re going to get that going again, and how we’re going to make sure that everybody shares and that the tax burden is fairly distributed.”
Is this going to happen after every primary? The “What Does Bloomberg Think?” hour? Because, if so, at this rate he’s going to be in the electoral dialogue way more than Giuliani. Without paying a dime.
Bloomberg Parses the Iowa Results [NYT]
True To Form, Bloomberg Downplays Iowa, Criticizes Process [NYO]
Related: Bloomberg: Primary? What Primary? & Noncandidate Bloomberg Just Happens to Have Better Ideas Than the Real Candidates
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Iowa Changes EverythingEvery single political candidate, at some point in this primary season, has talked earnestly about change. It’s a standard part of political rhetoric, harping upon the populace’s general mistrust for whatever current government has lately been in power. Even Hillary Clinton, with her recent-president husband over her shoulder, talks frequently about “shaking up Washington” and “making a difference.” But while nobody was looking, it seems like Iowa voters were finally listening. Last night they made a push to challenge political assumptions and long-accepted truths about money and Establishment. When Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama rocketed to decisive visits in the caucuses, the conventional wisdom was that, well, conventional wisdom itself had been shaken up. At least, that’s what the press thinks. Take a look at today’s headlines:
The Status Quo Lost, and Change Won [The Nation]
Two Newcomers Jolt Parties’ Status Quo [NYT]
Establishment Gets a Jolt [Seattle Times]
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Hillary Calmly Plays Her Last HandHillary Clinton’s final Iowa ad is on YouTube. It will be broadcast tonight at 6 p.m. in every media market in the state. It’s two minutes long, it’s calm, and it’s reasonable. It also promises that the last image of Hillary is one of her rested and in control (as opposed to John Edwards, who is right now nearing the end of his grueling 36-hour bus-tour marathon). We wonder how long ago the video was filmed (either that, or how much video airbrushing went on. The gal looks ten years younger!). It’s a funny contrast, to see the image that Hillary wants you to have of her, after weeks of fatigue, sniping, and near-desperation. Is the Clinton in this video the one who would run the country every day? Or the snappy, haggard, calculated one we’ve come to see on the trail? You decide. Hahahahah. Just kidding. Iowa decides. You have nothing to do with it.
Click here to view.
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John Edwards Attacks the Wealthy in Their Place of Worship“Morning, Brock! I see you were reading the Wall Street Journal in your Town Car on the way to work!”
“Hullo, Trip! Indeed I was. Can you push the elevator button for the executive suite? Thanks. You know, I happened to notice that there was an op-ed by Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards in there.”
“Really. I haven’t been much paying attention to those liberals out in Iowa. Can you imagine spending the New Year in Des Moines?”
“There aren’t even mountains there. Where do people ski? And more important, where do they après ski? The Wal-Mart parking lot? Ha-ha! Oh, dear, you’re stepping on my Bally briefcase with your Ferragamo loafer, it seems.”
“Sorry, my boy. Anyway, what does that old Edwards boy have to say? He does have good dental work and trustworthy hair. Maybe he’s finally appealing to us, his own income class?”
“Let’s take a look, shall we? Hm ‘the bargain of America’ ‘skyrocketing education and health care costs’ ‘foreclosure crisis’ wait a minute! Listen to this: ‘The problem is forty percent of all economic growth over the past 20 years has gone to the top 1% of families.’ That’s the problem? Egad. Someone page Mindy. I need a Mylanta!”
in other news
Benazir Bhutto AssassinatedAs you’ve most likely heard by now, former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated today at a rally in Rawalpindi. As the opposition leader, she was a leading contender to be reelected prime minister during the early January elections.
There’s a lot to be said about this tragic turn of events, but we’ll instead direct you to New York’s own interview with Bhutto, published in late September, in which she has some advice for Hillary Clinton.
Nuturer-in-Chief [NYM]
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Surprise! It’s Election Day!
Just a reminder — today is Election Day! It may not matter to you, but it matters a lot to the 125 residents in the Adirondack hamlet of Raquette Lake who want to get clean water in their taps, so don’t forget your civic duty! These folks at Gray’s Papaya in the West Village want you to be thinking about politics today.
What’s that you say? This picture has nothing to do with today’s ballot? Oh, right. Did you vote yet? No? Talk to us when you can prove you really care about our government.
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Michael Mukasey Fails to Incite RiotsHow about that attorney-general position? It’s as transitory as the seats on The View, no? According to the morning papers, the Justice Department’s latest benchwarmer will likely be a local boy: Bronx-born Michael Mukasey, a retired federal judge with formidable experience (he was a prosecutor during the Giuliani era and, after the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center, presided over the trials of Jose Padilla and Omar Abdel Rahman). Other than the almost-sketchy (but not quite) fact that he and his son are currently serving as judicial advisers to Giuliani’s presidential campaign, there doesn’t appear to be anything particularly offensive about this guy. Even Senator Chuck Schumer, who loves him some outrage, is a fan: Mukasey “seems to be the kind of nominee who would put rule of law first and show independence from the White House,” the senator said in a statement yesterday. Well! We’re actually not filled with total despair! And at this stage of the game, if the administration doesn’t inspire bloodcurdling screams of outrage, even the littlest Hail Mary should be considered a total miracle.
Bush to Nominate Mukasey as Attorney General [NPR]
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Spitzer’s New Pal: Charlie RangelOnce upon a time, Charlie Rangel was the kind of entrenched political boss reformer Eliot Spitzer was trying to remove from the conversation. And once upon a time, Spitzer was the kind of steamrolling, prosecutorial, holier-than-thou Ivy Leaguer Rangel snidely termed “the smartest man in the world.” Spitzer ditched Rangel’s lieutenant-governor suggestion at last minute; Rangel dubbed Spitzer’s plan to reduce health-care costs “disastrous.” Now the two are about to step into a joint press conference to present a plan to protect health care for children. Strange bedfellows, indeed. What gives? According to a source close to Spitzer, making nice with Rangel is part of the embattled governor’s plan to reach out to old foes and shore up his political backing. “The governor is now looking to places where he never used to for support,” the source says. And Rangel sees Spitzer’s problems as presenting an opportunity to get a deal he likes, a source close to Rangel says. “The governor is certainly in need of some friends right now,” the source says. In exchange for political cover, Rangel is looking to pick up “chits,” the Rangel source says. “There are a lot of projects in New York that Charlie cares about, and I’m sure the governor is taking that into account.” —Geoffrey Gray
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Obama Comes to Brooklyn, Visits Hotel Ballroom
So Barack Obama came to Brooklyn last night, and it’s a funny thing: Turns out Barack in Brooklyn looks a hell of a lot like Barack anywhere else. They couldn’t have done this by the bridge? Or the Cyclone? Or with a hot dog in his hand? Disappointing.
the morning line
Stone Quits
• GOP consultant Roger Stone resigned his job with the state Republican Party over that call to Pa Spitzer, but he still maintains — busted alibi and all — that Democratic operatives may have just broken into his house and made the call from his phone while using some kind of high-tech device to impersonate his voice. Ya-huh. [NYT]
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Roger Stone’s Alibi: No ‘Frost/Nixon’ on Monday NightsEveryone agrees that, whatever else happened, the bizarre late-night phone call to Eliot Spitzer’s dad was made on the evening of August 6, a bit before 10 p.m. Bernard Spitzer’s lawyers says it came from Roger Stone, a Republican consultant; Stone says Democratic operatives broke into his Central Park South apartment and used his phone to frame him. He couldn’t have made the call, Stone said in a statement posted to his Website, because “[o]n the night this call was allegedly made, I was at the theater catching the play NIXON and FROST [sic].” We’ll ignore the ironies that Nixon is modern politics’ greatest dirty trickster, that Stone worked for Nixon, and that the fulcrum of Frost/Nixon is a (fictional) bizarre late-night phone call. We’ll just note this: August 6, 2007, was a Monday. And like many Broadway shows, the play, which closed this weekend, took that night off. “We were completely dark on Mondays,” a rep from its management company told us. —Geoffrey Gray
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And It Will Become Necessary to Destroy the Country in Order to Save ItSorry, this has no New York connection and is outside our usual bailiwick and all that, but, still:
How did this man get elected twice?
Bush to Invoke Vietnam in Arguing Against Iraq Pullout [CNN]
Related: Bush’s Iraq-Vietnam Parallel [The Lede/NYT]